Monday, 16 August 2021

Can the Future of Food Be Sustainable in a Rapidly Growing World? Cargill’s CEO Says They’re Investing in It

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The scale and reach of Cargill, the nation’s largest private company, is staggering.

The Minnesota-based company, which operates in 70 countries and has 155,00 employees, is involved in a range of businesses across the food chain, from selling feed to farmers, to commodities and meat processing. Cargill had revenues of $134.4 billion in its most recent fiscal year, which is equal to about .06 percent of the nation’s GDP. On Aug. 9, Cargill entered the U.S. poultry market by joining Continental Grain in acquiring Sanderson Farms for $4.3 billion, one of the largest deals in Cargill’s 156-year history.
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As a leader in global agriculture, Cargill is taking steps to make its supply chain more sustainable and equitable, and has embarked on splashy ventures to reduce its carbon footprint. It has teamed up with a company started by a British sailing champ to develop enormous wing sails, nearly 15 stories high, to mount on the deck of cargo ships. (Cargill’s Geneva-based ocean transportation unit operates a fleet of more than 600 ships.) The new wind propulsion technology, which is aiming to launch next year, could reduce CO2 emissions by as much as 30% on the ships that deploy it, according to Cargill.

It has also teamed up with a U.K. startup to distribute a mask-like device for cows that captures methane produced when the bovine belches, converting it into less-damaging CO2. Cargill, which is a huge producer of a wide range of animal feeds, is also working on new feed formulations that would produce less gas in cows.

Big food companies are increasingly focused on how to satisfy the world’s growing demand for protein. Cargill CEO David MacLennan cites a statistic that global protein demand will increase by about 70% by 2050, as the world population approaches 9 billion people. In anticipation of that need, Cargill is investing in the development of cell and plant-based protein. For instance, it supplies faux meat maker Beyond Meat with the pea protein used to make its products. It is also investing heavily in the complex and controversial field of aquaculture, providing fish meal to the growing number of fish farms around the world.

MacLennan recently joined TIME for a video conversation on the challenges of a tight labor market, whether Cargill will ever go public and the future of food.

 

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(This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.)

 

Cargill touches so many aspects of the supply chain-where are you experiencing shortages or inflation?

Like many companies, we’re seeing some labor shortages, particularly in North America, in our animal protein supply chain. We do have a lot of touch points in the supply chains: we start with the farmer where the food is produced, and [we have] trucks, rail, barges, ocean transportation to get it to where it’s consumed or further processed. But by and large, things are working, other than the exception of tight labor supply in North American protein.

Is that the meatpacking plants specifically?

Yes. North American proteins are still pretty labor intensive businesses. One [meatpacking] plant might have 2,000 employees over three shifts. So the labor shortage is going to be more noticeable and more pronounced. It is constraining production, not significantly, but it means that you have to run the plant a little slower, not at full capacity.

These are some of the toughest jobs in the nation. What is your view on why there are labor shortages?

I think it’s a combination of things. Number one is people are choosing not to return to those jobs. They are tough jobs and people have more choices today with a tight labor supply and a lot of different industries looking for labor. Number two is that immigration constraints have put a crimp on access to labor. Immigrant labor was what powers plants and kept the food supply chain up and running. I think you’ve got an impact from the government aid that has come through COVID relief. Like many industries, people have been given support from government programs, so I think it’s a combination of those factors that have led to tightness in the labor supply.

In your view is the labor shortage transitory or lasting?

That’s the great question of today, isn’t it? I think it’s permanent. People have a different way of thinking about their work. I just read an article about virtually zero population growth in the U.S. These are things that have been predicted for a long time, with the shrinking labor force of the baby boomers and smaller generations of millennials and Zs. I think it’s a permanent shift.

And are you losing valued veteran colleagues who are saying ‘I’ve had a good run and now I’m going to go off and grow organic blueberries?’

Yes, we have. Certainly there are people that have said, “You know I had a good run, and I had a good career, and having a year of different working structure has given me a different perspective.” We are seeing that now.

Where are you seeing inflation?

I go back to wage inflation in our plants. Is wage inflation permanent in our [meatpacking] plants? I don’t know because you’ve always got automation and technology, which is modernizing these plants. And so that may offset inflationary price pressures.

Anywhere else?

Commodity prices are high. They’re much higher than they were a year ago. We’ve had strong demand from China for both corn and soybeans, so stocks have become very tight. Ag prices have gone up, but that has yet to roll through to the grocery stores.

Cargill has been criticized for its timetable on deforestation in regards to soy in Brazil. You’re eliminating deforestation from your soy supply chain by 2030. Why not faster?

I think it’s wanting to make commitments that we feel we could deliver upon. The supply chains in Brazil, and all throughout the world for commodities are very, very complicated. We have thousands of farmers in Brazil that depend on us for buying their products, and they have not committed illegal deforestation. We did declare a moratorium on purchasing from illegally cleared forest lands in the Amazon. We are not and will not source from farmers who clear land in protected areas.

The Supreme Court recently threw out a suit claiming Cargill knowingly bought cocoa from farmers that used child labor.

We do not tolerate child labor in our supply chains. We have achieved 100% traceability of our cocoa supply chain in Ghana. In Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, we are engaged with 7,500 farmers who are members of co-ops, and we have surveys that ask them the location of where they’re growing their cocoa, and how many children do they have on their farm and what are the ages of their children.

Then we use artificial intelligence to run data systems to use predictive analytics to say where, in these thousands of hectares of land where cocoa has been grown in those two countries, where the likelihood of child labor abuse and sustainable practice abuse is the highest. And we will not tolerate it. We will not purchase from any farm or source of any farm that has child labor abuses.

Let’s switch to ocean-going freight, where you operate a huge fleet. When you talk to CEOs this summer, there’s a lot of concern about delays in shipping.

You still have slowdowns in supply chains, which include ocean transportation due to COVID and some countries, either because of labor shortages or restrictions on vessels coming and going and that creates pinch points in the supply chain. You also got the reemergence of international trade. The Chinese have been actively restocking and purchasing agricultural products which take up ocean freight capacity. Therefore you have to wait longer to get your freight. It’s supply and demand, driven a lot by demand for ocean freight, but also slowdowns in certain areas of the world due to COVID protocols.

How will the food industry address the world’s growing demand for protein, particularly with concerns about greenhouse gases linked to beef production?

It means we’ve got to develop alternative sources of protein. We are in plant protein, for example, pea protein. We were one of the first to the the market with a plant-based protein patty. We are also investors in companies that are producing cellular-based protein. Cell-based and plant-based protein is something that is very exciting and we’re putting a lot of time and capital behind.

And then you’ve got protein coming from fermentation. So we are changing our portfolio to create alternatives and create choices for consumers for food that they see as being better for them, that is produced in more sustainable ways, that is the complement to traditional animal protein. But emerging economies still want to consume protein in its purest form, which is animal protein. That business isn’t going away.

Other promising growth areas?

Bio industrials: I’m very excited about using sustainable and renewable resources to produce industrial products.

There was a Forbes report a few years ago that there were multiple billionaires from the Cargill family. Are you feeling pressure to go public? Do you want to take this opportunity to announce plans to go public today?

Not today, tomorrow, or anytime soon. The family owners love being private.

What is the best way to feed the world’s growing population?

Make sure that you can travel across borders. Don’t erect trade barriers. Don’t use food as a weapon. Practice comparative advantage. Use your natural resources of your region, grow what is best suited for the soil, the climate, the access to water.

For example, the American Midwest is ideally suited for dairy. The dairy industry is less suited for California, with the strains on the water supply… That means politics has to be supportive of trade. One of the best ways to make sure that the 9 billion people in the world have access to food is to ensure that it can get from where it’s best produced to where it is most needed.

 

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WASHINGTON — A fresh contingent of Marines arrived in Kabul on Saturday as part of a 3,000-troop force intended to secure an airlift of U.S. Embassy personnel and Afghan allies as Taliban insurgents approach the outskirts of the capital.

The last-minute decision to re-insert thousands of U.S. troops into Afghanistan reflects the dire state of security and calls into question whether President Joe Biden will meet his Aug. 31 deadline for fully withdrawing combat forces.

After an advance group of Marines arrived on Friday, more flowed into the Kabul international airport on Saturday, said Navy Capt. William Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command. Citing operational security, Urban declined to provide specific numbers. The Pentagon said on Friday that the bulk of the 3,000 — comprising two battalions of Marines and one of Army soldiers — are due by the end of the weekend.
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Officials have stressed that the newly arriving troops’ mission is limited to assisting the airlift of embassy personnel and Afghan allies, and they expect to complete it by month’s end. But they might have to stay longer if the embassy is threatened by a Taliban takeover of Kabul by then.

On Saturday, the Taliban seized two more provinces and approached the outskirts of Kabul while also launching a multi-pronged assault on a major northern city defended by former warlords, Afghan officials said.

“Clearly from their actions, it appears as if they are trying to get Kabul isolated,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said, referring to the Taliban’s speedy and efficient takedown of major provincial capitals this past week.

Biden had given the Pentagon until Aug. 31 to complete the withdrawal of the 2,500 to 3,000 troops that were in Afghanistan when he announced in April that he was ending U.S. involvement in the war. That number has dropped to just under 1,000, and all but about 650 are scheduled to be gone by the end of the month; the 650 are to remain to help protect the U.S. diplomatic presence, including with aircraft and defensive weapons at the Kabul airport.

But Thursday’s decision to dispatch 3,000 fresh troops to the airport adds a new twist to the U.S. withdrawal. There is no discussion of rejoining the war, but the number of troops needed for security will depend on decisions about keeping the embassy open and the extent of a Taliban threat to the capital in coming days.

Having the Aug. 31 deadline pass with thousands of U.S. troops in the country would be awkward for Biden given his insistence on ending the 20-year U.S. war by that date. Republicans have already criticized the withdrawal as a mistake and ill-planned, though there’s little political appetite by either party to send fresh troops to fight the Taliban.

Kirby declined on Friday to discuss any assessment of whether the Taliban are likely soon to converge on Kabul, but the urgent movement of extra U.S. troops into Afghanistan to assist the embassy drawdown is clear evidence of Washington’s worry that after the rapid fall of major cities this week with relatively little Afghan government resistance, Kabul is endangered.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani delivered a televised speech Saturday, his first public appearance since the recent Taliban gains, and pledged not to give up the “achievements” of the 20 years since the U.S. toppled the Taliban after the 9/11 attacks.

The Biden administration has asserted that Afghan security forces have tangible advantages over the insurgents, including a viable air force and superior numbers. The statement serves to highlight the fact that what the Afghan forces lack is motivation to fight in a circumstance where the Taliban seem to have decisive momentum.

Stephen Biddle, a professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, said in an interview the announcement that 3,000 U.S. troops were heading to Kabul to help pull out American diplomats and embassy staff likely made Afghan morale even worse.

“The message that sent to Afghans is: ‘The city of Kabul is going to fall so fast that we can’t organize an orderly withdrawal from the embassy,’” Biddle said. This suggests to Afghans that the Americans see little future for the government and that “this place could be toast within hours.”

The Pentagon also is moving an additional 4,500 to 5,000 troops to bases in the Gulf countries of Qatar and Kuwait, including 1,000 to Qatar to speed up visa processing for Afghan translators and others who fear retribution from the Taliban for their past work with Americans, and their family members.

The State Department said the embassy in Kabul will remain partially staffed and functioning, but Thursday’s decision to evacuate a significant number of embassy staff and bring in the thousands of additional U.S. troops is a sign of waning confidence in the Afghan government’s ability to hold off the Taliban surge. The Biden administration has not ruled out a full embassy evacuation or possibly relocating embassy operations to the Kabul airport.

There were a little over 4,000 personnel still at the embassy; the State Department has not said how many are being pulled out in the next two weeks.

The Biden administration warned Taliban officials directly that the U.S. would respond if the Taliban attacked Americans during the stepped-up deployments and evacuations.



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Two people killed in 'tragic' light aircraft crash in Somerset - Sky News

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  2. Man and woman killed after plane crashes into farmland in UK countryside  Mirror.co.uk
  3. Man and woman killed in plane crash near Devon border, police confirm  Devon Live
  4. Two killed in Somerset plane crash, police confirm  Somerset Live
  5. Two die in plane crash near Buckland St Mary  Somerset County Gazette
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Howard Dean: Ron DeSantis is 'an embarrassment to every governor'



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Phoenix police officers passed around a coin to celebrate shooting anti-Trump protesters in the groin. The police chief got a 'written reprimand' for it.



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Letters to the Editor: Rand Paul’s disinformation campaign. McConnell not ‘conservative.’



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'Pokémon Presents' Live Presentation Announced For Wednesday, 18th August - Nintendo Life

  1. 'Pokémon Presents' Live Presentation Announced For Wednesday, 18th August  Nintendo Life
  2. Pokémon Presents set for next week  Eurogamer.net
  3. Pokemon Presents showcase coming August 18 with Pokemon Legends Arceus updates  Gamesradar
  4. Pokemon livestream promises Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl, Legends: Arceus news  VG247
  5. The Pokémon Company will reveal new game details next week  Video Games Chronicle
  6. View Full coverage on Google News


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Bill de Blasio warns 'very close eye' should be kept on Cuomo during final days in office



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Teens battered innocent man 'just for the sheer hell of it' - Liverpool Echo

Teens battered innocent man 'just for the sheer hell of it'  Liverpool Echo

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Moderate Democrats warn Pelosi they won't consider budget resolution until infrastructure bill passes



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Every word Jurgen Klopp said about Liverpool transfers and Virgil van Dijk contract before Norwich City - Liverpool Echo

  1. Every word Jurgen Klopp said about Liverpool transfers and Virgil van Dijk contract before Norwich City  Liverpool Echo
  2. Norwich v Liverpool: Why Farke needs to silence Klopp  PinkUn
  3. 'Imagine if we would have to buy this boy now': Klopp delights in new Van Dijk contract  Guardian Football
  4. Liverpool's strongest line up for the new Premier League season  Liverpool Echo
  5. Ex-Rangers kid Billy Gilmour lauded as Scotland's best prospect in 50 years by Jurgen Klopp  HeraldScotland
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At the Texas Capitol, a Day for Arrest Warrants, Not Legislation


By David Montgomery from NYT U.S. https://ift.tt/3iKbzLz

Friday, 13 August 2021

Fauci: It's "likely" everybody will need a booster shot at some point



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‘Mom’ who received $200K in eviction donations admits daughters are not hers



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Bowie, bed-hopping and the blues: the wild times of Dana Gillespie - The Guardian

Bowie, bed-hopping and the blues: the wild times of Dana Gillespie  The Guardian

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TikTok hopes to help teenagers work, rest and sleep

The network changes direct messaging and stops late-night push notifications,

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GOP Lawmakers Slam Biden Officials for Dropping Suit against Hospital That Forced Nurse to Assist Abortion



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As Tropical Storm Fred approaches Florida, DeSantis tells residents to 'review their disaster plans'



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Marlboro Man Shopping for Asthma Drugs Puts Investors in a Bind

The battle for control of Vectura Group Plc has put shareholders and the board in a bind, forced to decide if the highest bidder for the U.K. health care company is also the best owner.

It’s a dilemma thrown up by the nature of the two suitors. After private-equity firm Carlyle Group Inc. made the first foray, tobacco giant Philip Morris International Inc. jumped into the fray with a higher bid. A round of back-and-forth increases has given Philip Morris the upper hand on price, while Carlyle maintains that it’s a more suitable parent than a seller of cigarettes.

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As it’s a cash-only bid, Vectura investors could choose to simply take the Marlboro-maker’s money and move on. But the optics of putting asthma drugs and cigarettes under the same roof are testing investors’ commitment to the environmental, social and governance credentials that have become central policy pillars of financial markets. Some asset managers are outright barred from doing business with arms manufacturers or tobacco giants, regardless of the returns these so-called vice stocks may promise.

“The acquisition could create a positive feedback loop whereby the company would be firstly paid for selling tobacco products, and then secondly paid for treating patients with diseases they could have received from those same products,” said Pirc, the U.K. shareholder advisory group, which recommends investors reject the Philip Morris bid.

The showdown will come to a head this week when Philip Morris is set to decide on its next move. Carlyle has already said it won’t raise its bid again beyond the current 155 pence per share, or 958 million pounds ($1.3 billion). The competitor could boost its offer—already 10 pence higher than Carlyle’s—to a level that will make it hard for investors and the board to refuse.

Another increase would have the benefit of voiding commitments that Carlyle has secured from shareholders representing about 11% of Vectura’s issued shares. But Carlyle has played up its credentials, saying its offer, while financially inferior, is in the best interests of “broader stakeholders,” including the scientists who work at the maker of asthma medicines.

Corporate Morality

The blowback against Philip Morris from the health-care community has been swift and harsh. The European Respiratory Society, whose constitution and bylaws reject any links—real or perceived—to smoking, has warned the deal is likely to be financially detrimental to Vectura, as health professionals will avoid prescribing drugs from any company that enriches the tobacco industry.

The society has urged U.K. regulators to intervene in the interest of protecting public health and confidence in essential medical supply chains. The U.S. COPD Foundation fighting the causes of lung disease has meanwhile said that a marriage of Vectura and Philip Morris “stretches the boundaries of corporate morality.”

Carlyle, Vectura and Philip Morris declined to comment for this story.

Michael R. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, has been a longtime champion of tobacco control efforts.

The focus on ESG policies has grown in recent years, creating a new market force that has caught some companies off guard. Exxon Mobil Corp. was pushed to appoint activist board members focused on environmental issues after a hedge fund gained the support from giant investors like BlackRock Inc. Food-delivery company Deliveroo Plc tanked on its trading debut in London in March after some investors sat out the IPO, deterred by perceived poor ESG credentials and questionable labor policies that have prompted labor strife.

Board Choices

Vectura’s board faces the dilemma of looking out for the wellbeing of the company, while performing its fiduciary mandate by recommending the highest bid. Some investors argue that shunning Philip Morris denies the company—and really any industry trying to build a better future—the opportunity for change.

Few attempts at corporate realignment have been as audacious as a cigarette maker angling for an asthma company. Philip Morris says it’s all part of a transformation to embrace a smoke-free future. Aside from cigarette alternatives such as heated tobacco and vapes that are considered less destructive to health, that strategy involves an entire new business area that’s not linked to nicotine. Philip Morris aims to generate at least $1 billion in sales from non-nicotine products by 2025.

For now, the battle for Vectura has given Carlyle the moral upper hand, a somewhat unusual position for a titan of the private-equity industry often associated with short-term gains. To blunt that argument, Carlyle has said it plans to speed up Vectura’s expansion, under the expertise of managing director Simon Dingemans, who was previously finance director at GlaxoSmithKline Plc.

Financial Firepower

Investors that have exclusion policies on tobacco will have trouble bankrolling such transformations, whereas more “engagement-minded” shareholders who want businesses to evolve will find it interesting, said Daniel Klier, former global head of sustainable finance at HSBC Holdings Plc and now chief executive officer of ESG data company Arabesque S-Ray.

From oil companies buying into wind and solar, to car companies dropping the combustion engine, to fast-food chains selling salad—corporations around the world are trying to wean themselves off products seen as unhealthy for people and the planet.

“Is it good or bad that Shell and BP are investing heavily in renewables?” Klier said. “I would say it is probably a good thing as they have great financial firepower. There’s an element that ESG experts need to understand, too, that if you want good companies to prosper they need access to capital and networks.”

—With assistance from Suzi Ring, Naomi Kresge, Alastair Marsh and Lucca de Paoli.



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Senator's filibuster over Texas voting bill passes 12th hour



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Google search led to arrest of cleared campaigner

An innocent housing campaigner was suspected of hacking after sharing documents he found online.

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Why COVID-19 Might Be Here to Stay—And How We’ll Learn to Live With It

Experts have long predicted that the pandemic will end with a whimper, not a bang. That is, COVID-19 won’t so much disappear as fade into the background, becoming like the many other common pathogens that sicken people, but also can be controlled with vaccines and drugs.

“This can become a livable pathogen where it’s there, it circulates, you’re going to hear on the evening news about outbreaks in a dorm or a movie theater, but people go about their normal lives,” former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicted in an April 2020 interview with TIME. For a while, it felt like the U.S. was closing in on that point. Highly effective vaccines arrived and made their way into millions of arms. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) relaxed its guidance on wearing face masks. By mid-June, the U.S. was recording an average of about 11,500 new cases each day, with deaths and hospitalizations falling commensurately. Many bars and restaurants opened to full capacity, schools and offices made plans to reopen their doors and travel was rebounding. People were, by and large, returning to normal life.
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And then the highly transmissible Delta variant hit, threatening to unravel everything. The U.S. is now clocking around 100,000 new infections per day. Thanks to those highly effective vaccines, fewer people are dying or ending up in the hospital than they did at similar points during previous waves—but with only about half the country fully vaccinated, millions of people in the U.S. remain as vulnerable as ever. The situation has grown bad enough that the CDC on July 27 advised vaccinated people in areas of the country where the virus is spiking to resume wearing masks in public indoor settings, and many schools and offices are walking back just-finalized reopening plans.

Is this really what it feels like to live with COVID-19?


There is only one human virus that the World Health Organization officially considers eradicated: the one that causes smallpox. Wiping out an infectious illness is incredibly difficult. It’s far more common for a pathogen to instead become endemic—that is, part of life in a particular place. Endemic viruses circulate consistently, and not without some disease and death, but they don’t bring society to a screeching halt.

That’s the fate many experts see for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. “There’s no plausible way I can imagine us getting to zero COVID-19, and I think it’s a distraction” to aim for that unlikely goal, says Dr. Sandro Galea, an epidemiologist and dean of the Boston University School of Public Health. A more realistic endpoint, he says, is for widespread immunity to make it so most people who get COVID-19 suffer no more than they would from a severe cold.

In that reality, lots of infections wouldn’t necessarily mean mass deaths and hospitalizations. The flu, for example, infects anywhere from 9 to 45 million people in the U.S. each year, according to CDC estimates, but lands far fewer in the hospital (between 140,000 and 810,000) and kills fewer still (between 12,000 and 61,000).

Thanks to vaccines, Galea says, the U.S. isn’t so far from a similar situation with COVID-19. While death and hospitalization rates are dangerously high in states with low vaccine coverage, like Florida and Louisiana, the national picture is changing. About 125,000 people in the U.S. were diagnosed with COVID-19 on August 6 and less than 600 people died from it that day. On the same day last summer, there were about 60,000 new cases diagnosed and more than 1,200 new deaths.

People receive COVID-19 shots at a mass-vaccination site in Seattle on March 13, 2021
Lindsey Wasson—ReutersPeople receive COVID-19 shots at a mass-vaccination site in Seattle on March 13, 2021

No vaccine is perfect, and that includes the ones authorized for COVID-19. As was always expected, some immunized people are experiencing “breakthrough infections,” which can (but rarely do) lead to serious illness. CDC analysis also suggests vaccinated people who get infected with the Delta variant are capable of infecting others—perhaps even as capable as unvaccinated people—which was a major motivator for the CDC once again recommending indoor masking in many areas.

But that doesn’t mean the vaccines aren’t doing their jobs. They were, after all, designed to protect against severe disease and death, not infections. On that front, they’re still doing exceptionally well. Just 0.01% of fully vaccinated people in the U.S. have reported a breakthrough infection that led to severe disease, according to recent CDC data. And during a recent, high-profile outbreak on Cape Cod, almost three-quarters of the 469 Massachusetts residents who got infected were vaccinated, but just four of them landed in the hospital.

Vaccines are a huge piece of learning to live with COVID-19, but the availability of effective treatments play an important role too. When the pandemic began last year, doctors were learning as they went. In March 2020, a staggering 25% of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in one New York City health system died from it, according to one study. By August 2020, that number had fallen to under 8%, in large part because doctors knew what they were dealing with and had more research on effective drugs and therapies. Now, multiple treatments have received FDA authorization, helping to make the disease more manageable, and even more are in development.

Nevertheless, an obvious problem remains: about half the U.S. population still hasn’t been vaccinated. That leaves millions of lives at stake, and allows the virus to keep tearing through regions, like the South and Midwest, where vaccine coverage is low. Right now, the rough equivalent of an entire stadium full of Ohio State football fans is diagnosed with COVID-19 every day in the U.S. That’s not sustainable, says Dr. Vineet Arora, dean for medical education at the University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine. She finds the conversation about endemic COVID-19 both premature and concerning, because she fears some people take it as license to give up. There are still “tools in our toolbox” that we need to use before waving the white flag, Arora says.

For example, vaccines haven’t yet been authorized for kids younger than 12, leaving millions of children vulnerable and potentially able to serve as tiny viral vectors. (Authorization for younger children may come this year, potentially as soon as autumn.) The three vaccines available in the U.S. right now have also only received emergency-use authorization rather than full FDA approval, a higher standard that involves a longer review process. If and when the FDA grants that full approval, Arora says it could both boost confidence in the shots and make schools and workplaces feel more comfortable about requiring them.

And though vaccine hesitancy has been discussed ad nauseam, the truth is that many of the roughly 30% of U.S. adults who remain unvaccinated are not “anti-vaxxers.” Surveys consistently show that roughly 15% of U.S. adults say they will not get the vaccine under any circumstances. But that leaves another 15% or so in the gray area. Some still want to “wait and see” what happens to people who have already been vaccinated. A small percentage have allergies or other medical conditions that prevent them from getting vaccinated. Others may struggle to access vaccines because they’ve been overlooked by the health care system, can’t take time off from work or child care or haven’t gotten trustworthy answers to their questions, Arora says. Reaching those people can take lots of time and individual attention, but she says it can and must be done with targeted, culturally sensitive community outreach.

If the U.S. accepts COVID-19 as an unchangeable fact of life before taking those steps, “We’re giving up on our children, as well as people who already are living with structural inequities,” Arora says—not to mention the burned-out health care workers who will have to keep treating a never-ending queue of coronavirus patients.

Further, letting our guards down early could open the door to new variants even worse than the Delta strain. The longer a virus spreads in a community, the more chances it has to mutate—potentially to the point that currently available vaccines no longer offer strong protection. We’re not there yet, but variants may already be challenging the natural antibodies hard-won by people who previously survived COVID-19 infections, says Katherine Xue, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University who studies viral evolution and the microbiome.

Consider the seasonal flu. “The flu virus changes constantly, year to year,” Xue says. “It’s that change that allows it to evade the buildup of immunity that we acquire through our own previous infections”—hence why flu shots are given annually. Similarly, as COVID-19 mutates, it will also likely get better at outsmarting the body’s defenses. The immune system doesn’t forget completely—as with other viruses, you’d likely experience subsequently milder illness with each exposure—but “the more different the virus is, the more pressure it may place on those immune defenses,” Xue says.

That underscores the importance of vaccinating as many people, as fast as possible, to cut off the virus’ ability to mutate. Doing so at a global scale is even more important, since many countries have vaccinated less than 20% of their populations. “As long as we have very large numbers of unvaccinated people around the globe, that still gives the virus many opportunities to transmit, and transmission gives it opportunities to evolve,” Xue says.

In Arora’s mind, that’s another argument for staying vigilant about COVID-19 prevention. “As long as the virus is evolving, we have to evolve with it,” she says. That means being willing to resume certain safety precautions—like wearing masks in public indoor spaces, as the CDC again recommends—when conditions call for it.

The work isn’t over, but Boston University’s Galea says he’s optimistic all the same. He believes vaccination rates will continue to inch upward as more people trust in the shots’ benefits, and as community leaders and health workers find ways to traverse the “last mile” and bring vaccines to the people who need them. He seems to be right, particularly as people see the impact of the Delta variant close to home: On average, more than 400,000 people are now getting their first dose each day, nearly double the daily average a month ago.

There’s also the bittersweet reality that people who get infected with the virus develop some immunity to it (though less than they would get from vaccination), meaning population-level susceptibility goes down each day, Galea says.


As long as COVID-19 continues to circulate and mutate globally, there will be periodic spikes in infections. But—assuming SARS-CoV-2 behaves like other, similar viruses—these spikes should grow progressively milder, since a larger and larger chunk of the population will have immunity, either through vaccination or prior infection, each time it flares up. Eventually, it could become a disease that primarily affects young children, since everyone else would have had a brush with it before, says Jennie Lavine, a computational biologist who models infectious diseases at Atlanta’s Emory University.

“If everyone 50 years from now is getting a first [COVID-19] infection between the ages of 0 and 5, that would actually be lower disease burden than flu,” Lavine notes, because kids, at least so far, have been less likely than adults to die from or develop serious cases of COVID-19.

Of course, there are always exceptions to rules. Future variants could hit kids harder than initial strains, as already seems to be happening to some degree with Delta. Elderly adults and the immunocompromised will likely remain more vulnerable to COVID-19 than the general population, meaning health officials will have to find ways to keep them safe and healthy. And, as with other viruses, there will likely continue to be people who develop long-lasting and sometimes debilitating symptoms after even mild cases of COVID-19—a serious problem that demands more research and better treatments.

None of those exceptions should be discounted. But in terms of learning to live with COVID-19 at a population level, turning it into a disease that kills and hospitalizes far fewer people than it infects is perhaps more important than getting case counts down to zero. “We’re more concerned, really, with how mild or severe it will be when it is at its steady state,” Lavine says.

Reaching that steady state isn’t like turning a page on a calendar. “There’s never going to be a ‘mission accomplished’ banner. There’s not going to be a moment when we switch from pandemic to endemic,” Xue says. “It’s going to be a very gradated move back toward normal life.”

That might mean mitigation tools, like masks and limits on large-capacity events, are periodically recommended during disease flare-ups. It may mean booster shots will be required at some point, to keep pace with the ever-changing virus. And, yes, it will likely mean dealing with some (hopefully small) amount of death and disease as more of the population builds up immunity.

But, as Xue wrote in a recent piece for the New Yorker, humanity has done this before. Influenza strains that routinely circulate today caused pandemics in the past. Some scientists even believe coronavirus OC43, which now causes little more than the common cold, seeded a pandemic in the 1800s. The point is not to minimize the suffering that occurred during those pandemics, but to recognize that the world eventually came out on the other side—and that the same is possible for SARS-CoV-2.



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Public and private school teachers choose to homeschool own kids



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